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Fooled by Randomness

Usually we don't even realize how huge an impact randomness has on our lives. And the important word here is 'huge' and not total.

So in the case of people who have done something extraordinary, it is a combination of hard work, skill and luck rather than just luck.

Fooled by Randomness is a book on probability that presents the subject not from the perspective of mathematics but of skepticism. According to Taleb, probability is not the result of calculations but the acceptance of the uncertainty of our knowledge, and the best we can do is to develop methods to deal with ignorance.

In practice, outside of textbooks and casinos, probability almost never presents itself as a mathematical problem or puzzle. Everything is more complicated than we think.